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#58839 - 15 Aug 07 11:38 Monetary Crisis II?
riccardo Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 12 Oct 05
Posts: 2195
Loc: Jakarta
Here we are exactly 10 years since the beginning of the last big Asian Monetary Crisis (locally referred to as KrisMon) and there are some worrying signs in the country's (and Asia's) financial markets.

Certainly, what's been happening over the last couple of weeks could be merely a minor blip, a natural balancing after so many record highs over the last couple of years. And it may well bounce back as early as tomorrow or next week.

But what if it isn't?

This morning (Wednesday August 15, 2007) the markets have really taken a big dive -- after falling steadily for the past 8 or 9 days. The Jakarta Stock Exchange has lost nearly 100 points (down 4.5%, or the loss of nearly US$90 million) in the first two hours of trading.

The rupiah has been steadily declining since it was at 8,650 per US$ just a few weeks ago (in early June). In morning trading it has dropped substantially -- 50 points -- to 9,400 to the dollar. It has, in the past few weeks lost nearly 9% of its value compared to the dollar. AND more worrying is that the dollar is actually weakening against other currencies like the Euro and the Pound.

When the dollar strengthens against all currencies as well as the rupiah it's no big deal, but when the dollar is at a weak point (like it is now) and yet the rupiah is still losing huge chunks to it each hour, that's a bit of a concern.


Overall, it seems as if the economy should be able to weather this. The last KrisMon prompted both local and international institutions to put many more mechanisms into the economy that are designed to prevent a major meltdown AND the BI has its highest amount of forex reserves ever. These things might/should/could prevent a disaster.

Like I mentioned, it's probably just a little seasonal blip and all will be "normal" in a few days, so strap in and enjoy the ride.
_________________________
Just here proffering my pearls to swine, my throat to wolves and my trousers to the flagpole.

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#58841 - 15 Aug 07 11:47 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: riccardo]
chewwyUK Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 14 Sep 06
Posts: 2392
Loc: Jakarta
I am sure if there is a melt down the Balinese land owner that has accepted my deposit and signed a contract saying he MUST sell his land to me for the agreed price of 40mil per are, will honor the contract even if the Rp is worthless
_________________________
Edited by Piss Salon
Edit Reason: taste

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#58845 - 15 Aug 07 12:04 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: riccardo]
Balibob Offline
Member**

Registered: 14 Jun 06
Posts: 1066
Loc: Bali
Quoting: riccardo
Here we are exactly 10 years since the beginning of the last big Asian Monetary Crisis (locally referred to as KrisMon) and there are some worrying signs in the country's (and Asia's) financial markets.

Certainly, what's been happening over the last couple of weeks could be merely a minor blip, a natural balancing after so many record highs over the last couple of years. And it may well bounce back as early as tomorrow or next week.

But what if it isn't?

This morning (Wednesday August 15, 2007) the markets have really taken a big dive -- after falling steadily for the past 8 or 9 days. The Jakarta Stock Exchange has lost nearly 100 points (down 4.5%, or the loss of nearly US$90 million) in the first two hours of trading.

The rupiah has been steadily declining since it was at 8,650 per US$ just a few weeks ago (in early June). In morning trading it has dropped substantially -- 50 points -- to 9,400 to the dollar. It has, in the past few weeks lost nearly 9% of its value compared to the dollar. AND more worrying is that the dollar is actually weakening against other currencies like the Euro and the Pound.

When the dollar strengthens against all currencies as well as the rupiah it's no big deal, but when the dollar is at a weak point (like it is now) and yet the rupiah is still losing huge chunks to it each hour, that's a bit of a concern.


Overall, it seems as if the economy should be able to weather this. The last KrisMon prompted both local and international institutions to put many more mechanisms into the economy that are designed to prevent a major meltdown AND the BI has its highest amount of forex reserves ever. These things might/should/could prevent a disaster.

Like I mentioned, it's probably just a little seasonal blip and all will be "normal" in a few days, so strap in and enjoy the ride.


Actually Ric,.. If you look at the FOREX all this week you will have seen thet the US$ has gained against all major currencies,.. the GBP as we speak is now at 1.98.. the Euro at 1.35 and the AUS $ has losted it's arse to the US$ overnight,.. the yen is the only curerency keeping up and gaining slightly against the US$.

The RP is manipulated within Indonesia and you Guys who watch the currency will notice every June the Rup strengthens,.. why?? beacuse imporers ahve to pay their imports in US$ so the do a DEAL with the BANK,.. remember where U are and all of a sudden the Rp strengthens and so they have to pay less Rp for their Greenbacks now things are back to normal and the Rp is falling in line with the rst of the currencies,.. there is ni Impeding Crisis as Mr Cheww thinks and he has just made a mistake in changing his Rp to Dollars,.. the rup is quite happy to trade between 9000 to 9500 and it will find it's own level,.. above that then the bank will intervine.

As for the Jakarta Stock Market,.., anyone who plays small time on that is just plain STUPID as that is TOTALLY Manipulated by the BIG BOYS,... A Blind Man should be able to see that,

_________________________
There is no love sincerer,.. than the love of food

(George Bernard Shaw)

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#58847 - 15 Aug 07 12:09 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: Balibob]
chewwyUK Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 14 Sep 06
Posts: 2392
Loc: Jakarta
To be honest bob the only reason i had so much Rp is because some bastard said the paperwork was done on my land in Bali .. when they had done bugger all. I just thought as its going to be another 3-6 months better to keep in USD as I still dont trust the IDR (even though I know that a lot of improvements have been made to the system
_________________________
Edited by Piss Salon
Edit Reason: taste

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#58853 - 15 Aug 07 12:31 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: chewwyUK]
riccardo Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 12 Oct 05
Posts: 2195
Loc: Jakarta
Bob, you are spot on with your take, but I was referring to the dollar vs euro/GBP/Yen over the last few months. The dollar has lost around 8% to the euro and pound in that period and the rupiah has lost a further 9% to the dollar. True, in the last couple days there's been a little bounce.

As for me, I haven't changed any dollars yet, and the people I work with and get advice from on the JSX are, in fact, the guys you refer to as the "Big boys" (they're actually all very little, skinny geeks with slanty eyes behind coke-bottle spectacles) so I just hang on to their coattails. It really is a rather sordid biz, but in a strange kind of adventurous way, it's fun.
_________________________
Just here proffering my pearls to swine, my throat to wolves and my trousers to the flagpole.

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#58856 - 15 Aug 07 12:37 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: riccardo]
riccardo Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 12 Oct 05
Posts: 2195
Loc: Jakarta
Lunchtime update:

The JSX has dropped 116 points (-5.33% -- the biggest decline in the Asia-Pacific region)
Singapore and Taiwan are both down by over 3.5%
The Nikkei, HK and Aussies are all down by some 2.5%

The Rupiah is still around 9400
_________________________
Just here proffering my pearls to swine, my throat to wolves and my trousers to the flagpole.

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#58860 - 15 Aug 07 12:57 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: riccardo]
Balibob Offline
Member**

Registered: 14 Jun 06
Posts: 1066
Loc: Bali
All European Markets closed,........ down, last night also and it will carry on for the rest of the week at least,.. U know the old saying "AMERICA Sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold" The Greenback is still gaining and will continue I fear for the next couple of weeks,.. so bet short Guys if you want to make money,.. I have changed some US Dollars into Rups like Kuku,.. as all my company overheads in US$ and revenue is 70% US$,.. so not only do I score there but also looks good on the P@L at month end , having a FOREX Gain, instead of Losses the past few months
_________________________
There is no love sincerer,.. than the love of food

(George Bernard Shaw)

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#58863 - 15 Aug 07 13:08 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: Balibob]
chewwyUK Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 14 Sep 06
Posts: 2392
Loc: Jakarta
I am bleeding money at the moment .... all my sex, drugs and rock n' roll money has been diverted to soft furnishings.
_________________________
Edited by Piss Salon
Edit Reason: taste

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#58901 - 15 Aug 07 17:00 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: Balibob]
riccardo Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 12 Oct 05
Posts: 2195
Loc: Jakarta
The Day's Carnage -- call it bleak Wednesday if you like.

The rupiah touched 9535 briefly and now sits at 9430, a loss of 80 points on the day.

All Ordinaries ----Down 181.000 (3.03%)
Shanghai Composite ----Down 2.902 (0.06%)
Hang Seng ----- Down 631.60 (2.87%)
Jakarta Composite --- Down 139.5549 (6.44%)
KLSE Composite --- Down 36.52 (2.83%)
Nikkei 225 --- Down 369.00 (2.19%)
NZSE 50 ---- Down 61.223 (1.51%)
Straits Times --- Down 113.34 (3.35%)
Taiwan Weighted --- Down 317.95 (3.57%)
_________________________
Just here proffering my pearls to swine, my throat to wolves and my trousers to the flagpole.

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#58907 - 15 Aug 07 19:14 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: chewwyUK]
Capt. Mainwaring Offline
Pujangga Besar

Registered: 16 Aug 06
Posts: 3225
Loc: here
Quoting: chewwyUK
I am sure if there is a melt down the Balinese land owner that has accepted my deposit and signed a contract saying he MUST sell his land to me for the agreed price of 40mil per are, will honor the contract even if the Rp is worthless


Oh dear Chewwy - you haven't done much business with the Balinese have you ? The buggers will chase you around the island because you politely showed a bit of interest in a bit of chainsaw carved junk and then force you to buy it - however when the boot is on the other foot will pretend to be dead and perhaps will even temporarily die if you try to enforce the contract . 40 J per are ? I'm just about to buy 500M^2 and that will cost the best part of 500J - termasuk absolutely nothing -

I bet your little smiling balinese feigns death unless you offer dollars or gold.
_________________________
I also made a vegetarian version,with tempe and tofu chunks for myself and others.Get over it.
Kosong.Wolo.Setunggal.Setunggal.Setunggal.Kosong.Pitu.Setunggal.Kosong.Wolo=Tempik

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#58914 - 15 Aug 07 20:10 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: riccardo]
yourfather Offline
Member+

Registered: 10 Apr 07
Posts: 136
Loc: melbourne australia
Quoting: riccardo
The Day's Carnage -- call it bleak Wednesday if you like.

The rupiah touched 9535 briefly and now sits at 9430, a loss of 80 points on the day.

All Ordinaries ----Down 181.000 (3.03%)
Shanghai Composite ----Down 2.902 (0.06%)
Hang Seng ----- Down 631.60 (2.87%)
Jakarta Composite --- Down 139.5549 (6.44%)
KLSE Composite --- Down 36.52 (2.83%)
Nikkei 225 --- Down 369.00 (2.19%)
NZSE 50 ---- Down 61.223 (1.51%)
Straits Times --- Down 113.34 (3.35%)
Taiwan Weighted --- Down 317.95 (3.57%)


well, the JSX is still up 20% from Dec 29 2006 as long as it says above 2000.



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#58942 - 16 Aug 07 08:20 Re: Monetary Crisis II? [Re: yourfather]
riccardo Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 12 Oct 05
Posts: 2195
Loc: Jakarta
Expect more carnage today. In the first couple of hours of trading in the Asia-Pacific, the Korean market is down a whopping 6.2%, Singapore's down 3.2%, and the Aussie market is down nearly 2%.
_________________________
Just here proffering my pearls to swine, my throat to wolves and my trousers to the flagpole.

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