Economists Question Government's Macroeconomics’ Assumption
Friday, 08 September, 2006 | 16:40 WIBTempo Interactive
, Jakarta: Economists are questioning an assumption concerning macroeconomics in the Revised State Budget (RAPBN) of 2007. This has reflected the government's attitude which is not yet democratic.
Umar Juoro, the economist at the Center for Information and Development Studies said that the assumption for economics growth in 2007 with 6.3 percent is considered too optimistic and not mirrored in the actual economics situation.
According to him, the government has always made a elevated target since the era of President Soeharto. However, if it missed, the government did not feel they had failed. This differs with a private group that created a low target that will treat a surplus as a bonus. “The government should do the same to be democratic,” he said when asked for a response from the 2007 Revised State Budget by the Commission for Finance and Bank at the House of Representatives. Fadhil Hasan, an economist at the Institute for Development Economic and Finance.
According to him, the government was acting like that because the preparation of the budget assumption was not aimed at achieving high economic growth, but a way of determining an economic projection to boost state revenues.
He has estimated economic growth by next year would be around 6 percent, whereas Fadhil predicted 5.6 percent.
Fadhil said that export value until the end of 2006 will be higher than the the first half of the year. The business sector has also increased production volume during the first half of the year so that exports will be higher. “Unfortunately, exports will again decrease by 2007,” he said. According to him, there will an economic delay by next year so that exports of raw materials from Indonesia will decrease.