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#98136 - 10 Apr 09 18:12 possible coalitions
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
Pooh Bah

Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
Assuming the quick count averages reflect actual seats parties later obtain in parliament (they won't), below are some possible coalitions that might be formed.

The "Pragmatic Reformist" coalition seems the most likely (53%). However, worryingly, the Old Guard is still able to muster a very strong 46%.

PartyQuick
Count
Av.
Old
Guard
Coalition
Islamic
Alliance
"Reformist""Pragmatic
Reformist"
Military
Islamist
Demokrat20.4%  
*
*
Golkar14.5%
*
  
*
*
PDIP14.2%
*
   
PKS7.6% 
*
*
*
*
PAN5.6% 
*
*
*
*
PPP5.3%
*
*
  
*
PKB5.2% 
*
*
*
*
Gerindra4.9%
*
   
*
Hanura3.5%
*
   
*
PBB1.8%
*
*
  
*
PKNU1.6%    
PKPB1.5%    
PDS1.3%
*
   
PBR1.2%
*
   
PPRN1.0%    
PDP0.9%    
PKPI0.8%    
PPPI0.7% 
*
  
*
Barnas0.7%
*
   
*
PDK0.6%
*
   
PPD0.6%    
Patriot0.6%
*
   
*
PNBK0.5%
*
   
PKedaulatan0.4%
*
   
*
PMB0.4%    
PKDI0.4%
*
   
PPI0.4%    
PakarPangan0.4%
*
   
Pelopor0.3%
*
   
*
PNIMarhaen0.3%    
PIS0.3%    
PIB0.3%    
PPDI0.3%
*
   
PartaiBuruh0.3%
*
   
PartaiMerdeka0.2%
*
   
*
PSI0.2% 
*
  
*
PPNUI0.2% 
*
  
*
  51.3%26.5%38.8%53.4%51.7%
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#98137 - 10 Apr 09 20:02 Re: possible coalitions [Re: KuKuKaChu]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
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Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Beat me to it, though my table contains PBM. I like that Golkar is both "old guard coalition" and "pragmatic reformist", while PDIP (because Mega hates SBY) is just old guard coalition. My table has a column headed 'Evil'.

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#98138 - 10 Apr 09 20:06 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
Pooh Bah

Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
indeed. i've personally never considered megawati or PDIP reformist. they are very much part of the old world.

just on the TV news: megawati is in a meeting with wiranto. apparently talking coalitions and election "cheating". Looks like the "Old Guard Coalition" (aka "Evil") have been working their spreadsheets too.

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#98139 - 10 Apr 09 20:25 Re: possible coalitions [Re: KuKuKaChu]
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
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Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
one disturbing possibility that i forgot to include was a Miliary-Islam nexus:

Golkar
PKS
PAN
PPP
PKB
Gerindra
Hanura
PBB
PPPI
Barnas
Patriot
PKedaulatan
Pelopor
PartaiMerdeka
PSI
PPNUI

together they could muster nearly 52%!

remember is was a military-islam alliance that brought Soeharto and the New Order to power, and led to the pogrom against "communists" 1965-68.

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#98140 - 10 Apr 09 23:42 Re: possible coalitions [Re: KuKuKaChu]
luludanlili Offline
Member+

Registered: 09 Mar 09
Posts: 37
Loc: jakarta, indonesia
Gerindra and Hanura? I dont think it will be possible.

The only common things among Partai Islam is polygamy. They have just learn that polygamy beat them so hard in april 9. There's no communist issue too.

Gosh, I hate to think that Demokrat may have coalition with PKS.
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#98142 - 11 Apr 09 05:25 Re: possible coalitions [Re: luludanlili]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
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Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Yes, while Mega and Wiranto and others can discuss coalitions now - anything could change (except PDIP as an opposition party) after the presidential election, when SBY starts offering cabinet posts.

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#98144 - 11 Apr 09 09:09 Re: possible coalitions [Re: luludanlili]
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
Pooh Bah

Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
Quoting: luludanlili
Gerindra and Hanura? I dont think it will be possible.

why not? they have a lot in common, including a common constitutency.

Quoting: luludanlili
The only common things among Partai Islam is polygamy. They have just learn that polygamy beat them so hard in april 9. There's no communist issue too.

polygamy in this election was completely irrelevant, save for those lonely foreign-funded NGOs, led by Western-educated sycophants or Western wanna-be's. the islamic parties are dying simply because people don't believe that crap any more. many Indonesians have started to grow up.

Quoting: luludanlili
Gosh, I hate to think that Demokrat may have coalition with PKS.

in coalition politics, you often have to do deals with the devil. a Demokrat-PKS alliance is more than just a possiblity; i'd say it was a probability.
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#98145 - 11 Apr 09 09:13 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
Pooh Bah

Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
Quoting: kenyeung
Yes, while Mega and Wiranto and others can discuss coalitions now - anything could change (except PDIP as an opposition party) after the presidential election, when SBY starts offering cabinet posts.

one problem all the non-SBY coalitions have is the lack of a credible, electable president.

i feel PDIP will remain an opposition party until such time as Mega becomes president. that, of course, will never happen again.
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#98161 - 11 Apr 09 13:46 Re: possible coalitions [Re: KuKuKaChu]
Piss Salon Offline
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Registered: 27 Jun 06
Posts: 4039
Loc: Jakpus
Quoting: KuKuKaChu
Quoting: luludanlili
Gerindra and Hanura? I dont think it will be possible.

why not? they have a lot in common, including a common constituency.


They hate each other.
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#98162 - 11 Apr 09 13:47 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
Piss Salon Offline
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Registered: 27 Jun 06
Posts: 4039
Loc: Jakpus
Quoting: kenyeung
Beat me to it, though my table contains PBM. I like that Golkar is both "old guard coalition" and "pragmatic reformist", while PDIP (because Mega hates SBY) is just old guard coalition. My table has a column headed 'Evil'.


Let us see it then.
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#98165 - 11 Apr 09 14:53 Re: possible coalitions [Re: Piss Salon]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
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Registered: 16 Apr 07
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Soon; be done as soon as I finish the GRSB spoof. Actually awaiting more of the vote count from KPU.

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#98259 - 13 Apr 09 08:34 Re: possible coalitions [Re: Piss Salon]
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
Pooh Bah

Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
Prabowo and Wiranto hate each other. so why are they meeting today at the Hanura office? and why is Prabowo sucking up?


Quoting: detik.com
Prabowo akan Temui Wiranto
Didit Tri Kertapati - detikPemilu

Jakarta - Bakal calon presiden dari Partai Gerindra Prabowo Subianto merencanakan bertemu dengan seniornya di militer, Wiranto. Menurut Prabowo, pertemuan tersebut hanya sebatas silaturahmi saja.

"Saya akan datang ke beliau karena beliau senior saya. Agendanya membicarakan perkembangan bangsa dan silaturahmi," kata Prabowo usai pertemuan Forum Lintas Partai di Ruang Board Room Bimasena, Jl Dharmawangsa, Jakarta Selatan, Minggu (12/4/2009).

Namun menurut Prabowo, tidak tertutup kemungkinan pertemuan tersebut berujung pada pembicaraan mengenai mengenai rencana koalisi antara kedua parpol tersebut. "Bisa-bisa saja," akunya disertai tawa.

Pertemuan Prabowo dengan Wiranto direncanakan dilakukan di kantor DPP Hanura, Jl Diponegoro, Jakarta Pusat. Belum diketahui secara pasti pukul berapa kedua mantan petinggi militer tersebut akan bertemu.

( ddt / sho )
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#98289 - 13 Apr 09 15:37 Re: possible coalitions [Re: KuKuKaChu]
Piss Salon Offline
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Registered: 27 Jun 06
Posts: 4039
Loc: Jakpus
Doesn't change the fact that they hate each otherr.
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#98294 - 13 Apr 09 17:45 Re: possible coalitions [Re: Piss Salon]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
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Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Sore Losers Wiranto & Prabowo End Cold War
Hatchet Not Buried but Aimed at SBY


Former military chief Wiranto failed to win the 2004 presidential election (when he was the presidential candidate of Golkar). Rather than concede defeat gracefully, he challenged the result in court, but to no avail.

This time around in 2009, Wiranto has his own political party, Hanura, which looks to have won only about 3.6% in last week's general election, according to the preliminary vote count. This poor performance means Wiranto will have trouble running for the presidency, unless he can form a coalition of parties to support his nomination.

Politics makes strange bedfellows. After more than a decade of acrimonious rivalry, Wiranto today met with his old foe Prabowo Subianto under friendlier circumstances. The two clashed in 1998 when dictator Suharto was forced to resign. Precisely what happened behind the scenes in those days remains shrouded in mystery. Some claim that Prabowo (then chief of the Army's Strategic Reserve Command - Kostrad) masterminded mass riots and rapes in Jakarta in May 1998 with the expectation that Suharto would declare martial law and hang on to power (and appoint Prabowo military commander), but Wiranto saved the day and oversaw the resignation of Suharto and his replacement by B.J. Habibie. Another version of events is that the political elite and senior generals decided Suharto's days were numbered. Thus Wiranto allowed/encouraged mass riots to take place in order to create a situation that would hasten Suharto's resignation and thereby save Indonesia from further social, political and economic chaos. Or that could all be nonsense. What did happen is that Prabowo mobilized troops in Jakarta without informing Wiranto. Riots and rapes happened, the military and political elite ceased supporting Suharto. When Habibie took power, Prabowo demanded to be made Army chief - and there were fears he may attempt a coup as he was still mobilizing troops. Habibie responded by ordering Wiranto to immediately remove Prabowo from his position as Kostrad chief. Later that year Prabowo was dismissed from the military for ordering the abduction of pro-democracy activists (13 of whom never reappeared, presumed murdered). Prabowo went into a sort-of exile in Jordan, managing some of his billionaire brother's Middle East business interests.

Prabowo and Wiranto now seem to have put the past behind them. Today they announced that Hanura, Gerindra and 23 other parties would form a joint secretariat to investigate 'systematic' violations in last week's general election (with the aim of challenging the result and then the legality of July's presidential election if they don't get a re-count or a re-vote). In other words, they are bad losers, hungry for power after investing millions of dollars in attempts to win support. Prabowo went as far saying this year's general election was "the worst" in the nation's history - as if the stage-managed elections dominated by Golkar under Suharto were better.

Wiranto would not rule out a coalition between Hanura and Gerindra. "Hanura and Gerindra fight for the same political aims, only with different vehicles. So don't be surprised if we meet to unite our spirit and strength," he said.

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#98295 - 13 Apr 09 18:05 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
Piss Salon Offline
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Registered: 27 Jun 06
Posts: 4039
Loc: Jakpus
Who wrote the above?
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#98296 - 13 Apr 09 18:16 Re: possible coalitions [Re: Piss Salon]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Wilfred Saddlebags. Pay no heed to his ill-informed twaddle, as he is an alcoholic, a plagiarist and very lazy. And he has chlamydia.

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#98300 - 13 Apr 09 19:32 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
Roy's Hair Offline
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Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
Quoting: kenyeung
Hanura, Gerindra and 23 other parties would form a joint secretariat to investigate 'systematic' violations in last week's general election of human rights committed by both party leaders.


Wiranto's pointing finger on 20 foot high billboards has been giving me nightmares...
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#98303 - 13 Apr 09 19:59 Re: possible coalitions [Re: Roy's Hair]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
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Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Any claims that Wiranto and Prabowo weren't on speaking terms for the past 11 years would seem to be horsefeathers, as evidenced by this photo from a Golkar convention in 2004:


Attachments
Wiranto_Prabowo.jpg



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#98307 - 13 Apr 09 20:10 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
Roy's Hair Offline
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Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta

"So anyway I pointed my gun at his Jaffas like so and he told me where his Fretilin buddies were hiding. I shot his nuts off anyway though..."


Edited by Roy's Hair (13 Apr 09 20:14)
Edit Reason: Jaffas
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#98308 - 13 Apr 09 20:11 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Meanwhile, Gerindra is considering getting Megawati's daughter Puan to be Prabowo's running mate, while Mega would get a face-saving 'mother of the nation' role/title.

Quoting: detikcom
Gerindra rancang Prabowo-Puan, Mega jadi ibu bangsa

Jakarta - Partai Gerindra mulai membidik pilpres. Pasangan calon pun sudah disiapkan. Yang paling utama koalisi dengan PDIP, dengan mengusung Prabowo Subianto-Puan Maharani. Megawati diminta menjadi ibu bangsa.

"Sesuai rapim Prabowo menjadi presiden, itu yang paling baik. Tapi situasinya bisa lain, salah satu opsinya Puan sebagai wakil," kata Ketua Umum Gerindra Suhardi usai bertemu Partai Hanura, di DPP Hanura, Jl Diponegoro, Jakarta, Senin (13/4/2009).

Bagaimana dengan posisi Megawati? "Kalau Megawati bisa menjadi ibu bangsa. Bisa menjadi seperti Lee Kuan Yuew sebagai king decision maker," tambah Suhardi.

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#98310 - 13 Apr 09 20:18 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
Roy's Hair Offline
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Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
Quoting: kenyeung

Bagaimana dengan posisi Megawati? "Kalau Megawati bisa menjadi ibu bangsa. Bisa menjadi seperti Lee Kuan Yuew sebagai king decision maker," tambah Suhardi.


Jesus, I don't know about LKY but one other comparison does spring to mind...



Suck that silver spoon baby.

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#98321 - 13 Apr 09 23:15 Re: possible coalitions [Re: Roy's Hair]
captain Pugwash Offline
Member+

Registered: 19 Mar 09
Posts: 35
Loc: Jakarta, Indonesia
One thing that did make me think was, after the election results was the military aircraft that flew over my house not once but several times... it was very very frightening, thunder and lightning 0 gallilaio, gallillio...
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#98667 - 20 Apr 09 22:02 Re: possible coalitions [Re: captain Pugwash]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Indonesian parties eye post-election coalitions

By Ed Davies

JAKARTA, April 10 - Indonesia's political parties are eyeing coalition partners ahead of a presidential election on July 8 after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrat Party took an early lead in Thursday's parliamentary poll.

The Democrat Party won about a fifth of the vote, quick count and early official results showed, ahead of former President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party, both of which won about 14 percent.

While Yudhoyono remains favourite to win a second term, he will probably have to hand out key ministerial posts to allies, dictating the pace of further reform of the economy.

Potential allies or kingmakers include Islamist parties such as the Prosperous Justice Party with 8 percent, and the nationalist party of ex-general Prabowo Subianto, with 4.5 percent. (Click here for details on party polices [ID:nSP487161])

Here are some possible coalition scenarios, in order of the most likely based on the results so far.

DEMOCRATS FORM ALLIANCE WITH GOLKAR, ISLAMIC PARTIES
Expect business as usual, with fairly market-friendly policies but slow progress with institutional reform.

If Yudhoyono picks Golkar as his main ally, he may either choose Kalla as his vice president again, or could opt for another Golkar politician such as its former chairman Akbar Tandjung or the Sultan of Yogyakarta, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X. Golkar was the long-time political vehicle for Suharto, the country's late autocratic ruler.

An alliance with Golkar would make it difficult to overhaul the bloated civil service -- a Golkar stronghold -- or the judiciary and police, areas which have been singled out as needing reform if Indonesia is to attract more investment.

Of those three candidates, the sultan is the most popular and has a reputation for being against corruption.

DEMOCRATS ALLY WITH PKS, OTHER ISLAMIC PARTIES
The PKS, like Yudhoyono's Democrats, have a tough anti-graft stance and have emphasised the need to clean up the bureaucracy. This would allow Yudhoyono a freer hand to fight graft and overhaul the civil service.

Yudhoyono could then either pick his respected finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, a reform-obsessed technocrat as vice president, or go for former PKS president Hidayat Nurwahid as his running mate.

But a PKS alliance could also lead to more sharia-style laws or policies such as a controversial anti-pornography law passed last year, further alienating secular supporters and religious minorities.

A GOLKAR PDI-P ALLIANCE
A potentially powerful bloc, representing about 30 percent of the votes, that could field a presidential candidate against Yudhoyono in July -- although with both Megawati and Kalla eyeing the presidency, agreeing on a candidate could prove tricky.

Neither PDI-P nor Golkar has much appetite for reform or attacking vested interests, so if this combination won, expect a negative reaction from the markets and investors. Even as an opposition bloc it could hinder reform efforts.

A PDI-P GERINDRA ALLIANCE
Megawati could team up with ex-general Prabowo Subianto's Gerindra Party, which shares some of her nationalist views such as favouring domestic over foreign investment.

Prabowo, who was married to one of Suharto's daughters, has presidential ambitions of his own, raising the question of who would take the top post and who would be deputy. His human rights record and Suharto family links make him a potential liability.

This combination would also be unpopular with markets.

GERINDRA FORMS ALLIANCE WITH SEVERAL SMALL PARTIES
This coalition appears a long-shot but Prabowo has invested time and money in raising his profile and cultivating good relations with a range of parties. He is well-funded, thanks to his tycoon brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, and would represent a step back to the Suharto era.

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#99260 - 28 Apr 09 23:47 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
kenyeung Moderator Offline
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Registered: 16 Apr 07
Posts: 2374
Loc: Indonesia
Golkar and PDI-P to form a 'big coalition'
The Jakarta Post ,
Jakarta | Tue, 04/28/2009 9:38 PM | National

Secretary-generals from Golkar Party and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) have agreed to form a “big coalition” involving six major parties in a bid to challenge President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (PD).

Golkar’s secretary-general Sumarsono and PDI-P’s secretary-general Pramono Anung discussed the coalition plan Tuesday in Hotel Nikko, Jakarta , and came up with two political strategies.

“Our meeting today concluded that we would set up a ‘big coalition’ which will include Golkar Party, PDI-P, the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra), the Peoples’ Conscience Party (Hanura), the United Development Party (PPP), and the National Mandate Party (PAN),” Sumarsono said.

“We will also facilitate a meeting among the party chairmen to discuss the coalition plan as well as deciding who will be the candidate for president and vice president,” he added.

He said that the decision to name the candidate for the president and vice president would be in the hands of the party chairmen.

“Our job is to find a strategy to strengthen the government but the decision makers are the chairmen,” he said. (fmb)

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#99261 - 29 Apr 09 00:01 Re: possible coalitions [Re: kenyeung]
Polisi Cepek Offline
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Registered: 17 Mar 07
Posts: 809
Loc: Di tengah hutan
Obvious strategy, really, for parties with no real ideology to speak of.
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