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#66454 - 16 Dec 07 17:36 Re: Climate change stress [Re: chewwyUK]
Capt. Mainwaring Offline
Pujangga Besar

Registered: 16 Aug 06
Posts: 3225
Loc: here
Quoting: chewwyUK
bloody hell ric the view from the perch you sit on must be awesome! Must be great work to look down on the plebs all day long. I am surprised you still socialize with the masses - who knows what you would catch

Kind Regards,

The Ignorant Public


Did you see the Chairman cry because the Indonesians decided to hold concurrent meetings?

Absolutely classic - great big ponce.



The easiest way not to have to follow a directive is to disagree with that directive in the first place.

I don't give a bollocks about global warming - I live on a hill.
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#66461 - 16 Dec 07 19:53 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Capt. Mainwaring]
Roy's Hair Offline
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Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
The movie was a little alarmist but that's what's needed. The IPCC report itself is authored and backed by over 2000 scientists. It's all about the numbers. It's easy to find a few lone climate sceptics on the web but 2000? There are of course many things we don't know about the process but two indisputable facts : Mankind pumps out a lot of CO2 and CO2 traps heat. These facts are not disputed by anyone. Why is it hard to believe that we can therefore affect the climate by burning in a few hundred years, the carbon that it took nature millions of years to lay down in the first place.


Edited by Roy's hair (16 Dec 07 19:54)
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#66464 - 17 Dec 07 00:56 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Roy's Hair]
riccardo Offline
Pujangga

Registered: 12 Oct 05
Posts: 2195
Loc: Jakarta
Quoting: Roy's Hair
The IPCC report itself is authored and backed by over 2000 scientists. It's all about the numbers.


This comes from the link I posted above

IPCC & Consensus

One of the biggest barriers to a rational discussion about climatology, is the persistent and sinister use of the ‘consensus’ argument. The idea that there is a consensus between ‘the world’s top scientists’ is used to brow beat politicians, to forestall media criticism of the global warming orthodoxy and to marginalise and ridicule those scientists who dare to speak out against the theory of man made global warming.

Until now, few people have explored the nature of this ‘consensus’. Who are these ‘top scientists’ and who says they all agree? As readers will see, from the few introductory links below, the ‘consensus’ is not all it seems. We urge readers to look at Professor Reiter’s testimony, for example, to the House of Lords

/.../

On the wider political and economic implications of the global warming alarm we would recommend two excellent books:

“Adapt or Die” - ed. Kendra Okonski

“Sustainable Development” – ed. Julian Morris

More Information:
http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/ipcc_consensus.html

...
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#66469 - 17 Dec 07 05:33 Re: Climate change stress [Re: riccardo]
KuKuKaChu Moderator Offline
Pooh Bah

Registered: 09 Oct 05
Posts: 10790
Loc: Centre of the Universe
ricc, have you ever considered working for the tobacco lobby?
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#66473 - 17 Dec 07 06:46 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Dilli]
The Great Gonzo Offline
Member+

Registered: 13 Dec 06
Posts: 134
Loc: Big Durian
The problem with the climate change problem is I wonder if there is bugger all we can do about it?

I read somewhere... but forget where... that if we accepted Kyoto full on, it would only prolong the climate change effects by a minuscule amount. So loads of cash should not be wasted on such a futile endeavour (such as carbon credits, etc), but instead that money should be spent on R&D for more CO2 friendly methods of heating and transportation, etc...

I am almost finding myself in agreement with Rich on this one... in that we will have to learn to adapt and survive, because how in the hell are we going to even slow down the CO2 producing machine of an economy we have now? Especially if we don't get China, India, etc, on board?
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#66474 - 17 Dec 07 06:52 Re: Climate change stress [Re: The Great Gonzo]
Dilli Offline
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Registered: 26 Feb 06
Posts: 8044
Loc: Nearest Bar
"instead that money should be spent on R&D for more CO2 friendly methods of heating and transportation, etc..."

I completely agree. This is in line with what I believe, however, it is possible to have the two courses of action take place concurrently.
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#66476 - 17 Dec 07 09:03 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Dilli]
Roy's Hair Offline
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Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER:
The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
Naomi Oreskes*

Policy-makers and the media, particularly in the United States, frequently assert that climate science is highly uncertain. Some have used this as an argument against adopting strong measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, while discussing a major U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report on the risks of climate change, then-EPA administrator Christine Whitman argued, "As [the report] went through review, there was less consensus on the science and conclusions on climate change" (1). Some corporations whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon dioxide emissions have also alleged major uncertainties in the science (2). Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case.

The scientific consensus is clearly expressed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme, IPCC's purpose is to evaluate the state of climate science as a basis for informed policy action, primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature (3). In its most recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocally that the consensus of scientific opinion is that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities: "Human activities ... are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents ... that absorb or scatter radiant energy. ... [M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" [p. 21 in (4)].

IPCC is not alone in its conclusions. In recent years, all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members' expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements. For example, the National Academy of Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins: "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise" [p. 1 in (5)]. The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking, and answers yes: "The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue" [p. 3 in (5)].

Others agree. The American Meteorological Society (6), the American Geophysical Union (7), and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling (8).

The drafting of such reports and statements involves many opportunities for comment, criticism, and revision, and it is not likely that they would diverge greatly from the opinions of the societies' members. Nevertheless, they might downplay legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abstracts, published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, and listed in the ISI database with the keywords "climate change" (9).

The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.

Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point.

This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect.

The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and failed to do anything about it.

Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to liste
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#66478 - 17 Dec 07 09:53 Re: Climate change stress [Re: riccardo]
Roy's Hair Offline
Pujangga Besar

Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
Quoting: riccardo


I'll tell you what I do agree with: I actually prefer warmer weather to cold weather; quite a lot. I also like water and water sports and if there's going to be more water (from all the melted ice), then I say the more the merrier.



Water sports ay? rubber sheeting on the old tempat tidur I trust?
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#66486 - 17 Dec 07 11:44 Re: Climate change stress [Re: riccardo]
Sammy Jankis Offline
Member+++

Registered: 21 Oct 07
Posts: 490
Loc: Manila, Philippines
Quoting: riccardo
Quoting: Roy's Hair
The IPCC report itself is authored and backed by over 2000 scientists. It's all about the numbers.


This comes from the link I posted above

IPCC & Consensus

One of the biggest barriers to a rational discussion about climatology, is the persistent and sinister use of the ‘consensus’ argument. The idea that there is a consensus between ‘the world’s top scientists’ is used to brow beat politicians, to forestall media criticism of the global warming orthodoxy and to marginalise and ridicule those scientists who dare to speak out against the theory of man made global warming.

Until now, few people have explored the nature of this ‘consensus’. Who are these ‘top scientists’ and who says they all agree? As readers will see, from the few introductory links below, the ‘consensus’ is not all it seems. We urge readers to look at Professor Reiter’s testimony, for example, to the House of Lords

/.../

On the wider political and economic implications of the global warming alarm we would recommend two excellent books:

“Adapt or Die” - ed. Kendra Okonski

“Sustainable Development” – ed. Julian Morris

More Information:
http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/ipcc_consensus.html

...


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#66487 - 17 Dec 07 11:49 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Sammy Jankis]
Roy's Hair Offline
Pujangga Besar

Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
there is consensus among the scientific community that A) Climate change is real B)The mothership connection is the roadmap to peace and prosperity and C) Bootsy Collins would make a great secretary for the environment.
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#66489 - 17 Dec 07 11:58 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Roy's Hair]
Sammy Jankis Offline
Member+++

Registered: 21 Oct 07
Posts: 490
Loc: Manila, Philippines
Quoting: Roy's hair
there is consensus among the scientific community that A) Climate change is real B)The mothership connection is the roadmap to peace and prosperity and C) Bootsy Collins would make a great secretary for the environment.


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#66490 - 17 Dec 07 12:06 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Sammy Jankis]
Sammy Jankis Offline
Member+++

Registered: 21 Oct 07
Posts: 490
Loc: Manila, Philippines
In addition to my above postings:





That is all.

/Phasers on full sarcasm
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#67460 - 03 Jan 08 09:05 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Sammy Jankis]
Roy's Hair Offline
Pujangga Besar

Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
The plot thickens...

Trees absorbing less CO2 as world warms, study finds

· Shorter winters weaken forest 'carbon sinks'
· Data analysis reverses scientists' expectations

James Randerson, science correspondent
The Guardian, Thursday January 3 2008

The ability of forests to soak up man-made carbon dioxide is weakening, according to an analysis of two decades of data from more than 30 sites in the frozen north.

The finding published today is crucial, because it means that more of the CO2 we release will end up affecting the climate in the atmosphere rather than being safely locked away in trees or soil.

The results may partly explain recent studies suggesting that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing faster than expected. If higher temperatures mean less carbon is soaked up by plants and microbes, global warming will accelerate.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the Nobel peace prize with Al Gore, has concluded that humanity has eight years left to prevent the worst effects of global warming.

Carbon uptake by land and sea is crucial to predictions about future warming. "We are currently getting a 50% discount on the climatic impact of our fossil fuel emissions," the climate scientist John Miller of the University of Colorado wrote in a commentary on the research in the journal Nature - meaning that half of what we put out is sucked up by the oceans and ecosystems on land.

"Unfortunately, we have no guarantee that the 50% discount will continue, and if it disappears we will feel the full climatic brunt of our unrelenting emission of CO2 from fossil fuels."

The surprise rethink concerns abundant evidence from around the world that winter is starting later and spring earlier. In northern attitudes, spring and autumn temperatures have risen by 1.1C and 0.8C respectively in the past two decades. That means a longer growing season for plants, which scientists thought should be a good thing for slowing warming. This increased growth is even visible from space, with satellite measurements indicating a greening of the land. As plants take up more CO2, that should put a break on CO2 increases.

However, the new data suggests that is too simplistic. The team analysed data from more than 30 monitoring stations spread across northern regions including Siberia, Alaska, Canada and Europe. The data, which goes back to 1980, charts the levels of CO2 in the local atmosphere. This is a product of both uptake by plants during photosynthesis and release of CO2 by plants and microbes during respiration.

The team focused particularly on the date in autumn at which the forests switched from being a net sink for carbon into a net source. Instead of moving later in the year as they had expected, this date actually got earlier - in some places by a few days, but in others by a few weeks.

"The information that we had from satellite data, that the greening was increasing, looked like a positive sign. There was hope that this would help us to mitigate emissions," said Anders Lindroth at Lund University in Sweden, who was part of the research team. "But even if we have a greening, it doesn't mean that we have a positive effect on the carbon balance ... it's bad news."

"This means potentially a bigger warming effect," said Timo Vesala at the University of Helsinki, who led the study.

The precise effect the trend will have on future warming is hard to predict, said Colin Prentice of the University of Bristol. "Over a longer period of decades, models predict changes in vegetation structure, including tundra regions becoming forested, and the forests tend to take up far more carbon than the tundra. So I would be sceptical about reading any particular future implication into these findings."

The research could partly explain results by the Global Carbon Project, which confirmed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is accelerating. Between 1970 and 2000 the concentration rose by about 1.5 parts per million (ppm), but since 2000 the annual rise leapt to an average of 1.9ppm - 35% higher than expected. Part of the rise is due to increased CO2 production by China, but the team said weakening carbon sinks were also to blame.
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#67495 - 04 Jan 08 04:06 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Roy's Hair]
The Great Gonzo Offline
Member+

Registered: 13 Dec 06
Posts: 134
Loc: Big Durian
I wish it would warm up faster... it was fucking -17 here today...

and on Monday its supposed to get up to +11...

Crazy weather!
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#67500 - 04 Jan 08 07:12 Re: Climate change stress [Re: The Great Gonzo]
Roy's Hair Offline
Pujangga Besar

Registered: 08 Nov 06
Posts: 3974
Loc: jakarta
Is the old Percy shrivelling in the cold boss?
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#67554 - 04 Jan 08 23:49 Re: Climate change stress [Re: Roy's Hair]
The Great Gonzo Offline
Member+

Registered: 13 Dec 06
Posts: 134
Loc: Big Durian
Nope, I managed to find a Percy warmer made in Changchun
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